Carly Fiorina was forced out of HP as the CEO but prior to that not only was she one of the most powerful women in business she was one of the most successful. What tripped her up at HP were poor CEO skills but she was a master of personal presentation, marketing, and company politics. In many ways she was an analog to Steve Jobs in a number of critical areas but lacked some of the important life experiences and some of the technical skills which make Steve successful.

But she also lacks the baggage that has kept Steve from getting a government post in the past. Currently she is being identified http://www.mercurynews.com as a potential Republican VP candidate.

Matching her up with McCain the combination would be daunting and address many of the competitive shortcomings the Republican Ticket is likely to have in as it competes for the office of the US President.

The Republican Problem

The Republican Ticket has three major problems. The existing Republican administration is not popular but distancing too much from it would look disloyal to the Republican base and keep Republicans from voting. Therefore they need both a connection and a strong outsider to address both the existing base and the additional people they need for the ticket.

John McCain is significantly older than either of the Democratic contenders and this places a lot of emphasis on who the Vice President will be because there appears to be reasonable chance they will become president.

Focus is shifting from the War where McCain is strong to economics where he isn’t perceived to be as strong suggesting this weakness needs to be addressed on the ticket.

The Opportunity

In looking at the polls more democrats say they are likely to vote Republican if Hillary Clinton loses than if Brarack Obama loses. In both cases, right now, there appears to be a growing opportunity if supporters from the losing Democratic candidate can be captured.

Many of these voting for either Democratic candidate are doing so for race or gender loyalties. However, the parties are racially distinct in terms of support while gender support appears to be more even. This would suggest a woman or a non-white running mate candidate would pay strong dividends but that a woman would likely provide a greater potential upside all else being equal.

How Fiorina Would Match Up

Given either of the potential Democratic tickets would be more focused on the Presidential candidate and devalue, as is traditionally the case with both parties, the Vice Presidential candidate the resulting tickets would live or die on the strengths of the presidential candidate. But for the Republican Ticket, due to McCain’s age, this will be more balanced allowing for a team approach to taking on Obama or Clinton.

In an Obama vs. McCain-Fiorina match, Fiorina would be able to play the gender card and better capture the women that were disenfranchised by an Obama win. In addition, in a debate on economics or any business issues her stage skill set should be able to easily match another the typical VP candidate that would likely end up facing her and remotely debate Obama who probably wouldn’t physically be at a VP based debate. McCain could then leverage her comments and any Obama attacks would have to be directed at the VP which would difficult to do without looking really lame. Attacking McCain on age would allow Fiorina to counter and likely have folks thinking worse of Obama so he would have to be incredibly careful.

In a Clinton vs. McCain-Fiorina match Clinton starts as the weaker candidate because the number of folks who don’t want her elected significantly exceed similar numbers for Obama. Fiorina matches on woman issues reducing Clinton’s woman base and disenfranchised ethnically diverse voters who are disenfranchised by Obama’s loss probably stay home rather than vote for either ticket but this further strengthens the Republican side. Bill Clinton has to be particularly careful as the subtext of his own fidelity problems could creep in easily and the wrong kind of attack on Fiorina could result in a massive shift of female voters.

Fiorina Capabilities vs. Risks

As mentioned above Carly Fiorina is a solid performer on stage and identified significant skills in debate and presence during the Compaq/HP merger. She is attractive and charismatic which should play well in politics and the shortcomings that cost her the HP job both were a learning experience for her and should not be as critical to a political post.

On the risk side the biggest is Fiorina has not been vetted in politics and we have seen people get crucified for things they didn’t publically disclose. On the other hand the window to do this is relatively narrow and most of the focus will likely be on McCain who has been vetted.

While the capabilities do appear to significantly exceed the risks, we don’t know what hasn’t been vetted which may understate the risk side significantly.

Dream Ticket?

Possibly, Fiorina matches up well with McCain and particularly well against Obama while increasing existing advantages against Clinton on paper. Her strengths appear to exceed her potential shortcomings with the caution that she hasn’t yet been vetted through an actual election. She is an outsider which, particularly for the Republican Party, is potentially a big advantage and she has impressive audience skills. She may lack the political connections to get the nod, but were she given the chance she would likely not disappoint.